Kingston and Surbiton MP Edward Davey could be in trouble next May – if poll predictions come true.

The Electoral Calculus website has given Conservative parliamentary candidate James Berry a better than one-in-three chance of taking Mr Davey’s seat in the impending general election.

It predicted Mr Berry would beat the Liberal Democrat incumbent with 31.04 per cent of votes – and a majority of just 0.3 per cent.

Labour would trail with 17.39 per cent, ahead of Ukip with 15.42 per cent, the pollsters suggested.

Mr Berry said: “We’re just over eight months before the election and I don’t think it’s sensible to get distracted by the polls. [The Lib Dems] have lost the confidence of the majority of people locally [and] they didn’t do well in the European elections.

“Education is probably the biggest issue, because everyone is now well aware that there is a school places crisis in Kingston.

“People are also concerned about the crime statistics in the town centre. They are looking to see what the parties are offering there.”

Mr Berry said he backed Tory-run Kingston Council’s plans to buy in more police officers for the town centre under the Police Act.

Energy Secretary Mr Davey, speaking from India while on a trade mission, said: “This May’s local elections showed that next year’s general election here is a two-horse race and will be a close fight. For now though I’m focused on my work for constituents.

“I hope the new council will be willing to work with me to secure the sort of investment Kingston will need in the next few years – whether it’s more funds for new schools planned by the last council or urging London’s Mayor, Boris Johnson, to use council tax to invest in more police officers so we do even more to tackle crime and antisocial behaviour.

Surrey Comet: Conservative candidate James Berry

James Berry has been tipped to win Edward Davey's seat for the Conservatives

“I’ll oppose further cuts by Conservative-run Surrey County Council to bus services that cross our boundary and hit local people, especially the elderly, who depend so much on transport links.”

Labour candidate Lee Godfrey said: “The Liberal Democrat vote is collapsing by the day in Kingston and Surbiton, and it’s moving in Labour’s favour. If you want a Labour MP and a Labour Government then there is only one thing that will achieve that – and that’s by voting Labour.”

UPDATE: Since this article was written the Electoral Calculus website now predicts Mr Davey to hold the constituency with 31.51 per cent of the vote. James Berry is predicted to win 30.47 per cent of the vote.