A study published by researchers at Kingston University (KU) uncovered major shortfalls in the government's sourcing of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for healthcare workers on the frontlines of the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic in the UK last year.

The research used mathematical models linked with predictive 'game theory', and showed that implementing alternative sourcing models developed in the research could have saved the government billions of pounds and increased their storage capacity for the essential protective gear "tenfold".

The open-access study witnessed KU academics partner with researchers from Hamad Bin Khalifa University in Qatar in the application of game theory to group decision making when it came to PPE sourcing during the first wave.

In a summary published by KU Tuesday (February 2), revealed findings included:

  • Five scenarios were simulated where stockpiling could have been initiated from January to March 2020 alongside increases in storage capacity up to 20 times higher than estimated base.
  • Results showed model could potentially have delivered cost saving of 38 per cent had stockpiling begun on February 7 last year – the date WHO warned of PPE shortages – and storage capacity could have been multiplied tenfold.

Images of frontline NHS workers wearing only disposable polythene gowns and face masks while treating Covid-positive patients have circulated during the Covid-19 pandemic, with many doctors and nurses suggesting they were putting their lives at risk treating coronavirus patients due to inadequate PPE.

One nurse told the PA news agency she feels staff are being treated like “lambs to the slaughter” due to the inadequacy of surgical masks herself and colleagues were using, in particular against new strains of Covid-19 that are more infectious than earlier strains.

A number of commentators have meanwhile accused the government of cronyism regarding the supply of PPE. 

The study was led by KU’s Dr Luluwah Al-Fagih working with fellow Faculty of Science, Engineering and Computing colleague Professor Jean-Christophe Nebel, used a ‘centralised/decentralised’ game theory approach initially developed by former Kingston University PhD student Dr Matthias Pilz, a co-author on the paper.

"Game theory is being used in a wide range of areas – from energy to economics and cybersecurity, but this work really demonstrates its potential for use in the management of medical supplies," Dr Al-Fagih, who is currently based at the College of Science and Engineering at Hamad Bin Khalifa University, said.

"We know there was a real shortage of PPE during the first wave of Covid-19 in the UK that led to huge supply chain issues and wanted to see whether this approach could provide a solution not just to addressing shortages but also the better management of stock in a cost-effective way."

To view the study and its findings online, click here.